The economic relationship between Syria and Lebanon is much too dependent on their political relation, says Nasri Al-Khouri, the head of the Syrian Lebanese Higher Council.

One cannot much deny this. Or can we? According to the data of the SLHC, bilateral trade has actually risen in the period that followed the death of Rafiq Hariri, reaching, in 2007, a 16-year high.

Bilateral agreements have also been largely detrimental to Lebanon, many say. Data from the SLHC, which sources its information from the Lebanese customs, say that Lebanese exports have posted a steady and gradual rise, reaching a 20-year high last year and recording a balance in favour of Lebanon, for the first time since at least 1990.

What these data actually prove is that the relationship between these two “brotherly” or “sisterly” countries - that’s up to you to choose - is, to say the least, complicated.

Syria would probably not be liberalizing its economy and going through a revival of its services sector without the thousands of Lebanese managers that are running Syrian firms. Lebanese managerial know-how is being exported throughout the Arab world and Syria will continue to need it if it wants to further the opening up of its economy.

Beyond, Lebanese capital and its connection with world markets will continue, as it has been the case for decades, to offer an outlet for the Syrian business community, as the latest syndicated loan managed by Bank Audi Sal to finance the construction of a cement plant in Aleppo shows.

Meanwhile, Lebanese businesses must realize that the changes taking place in Syria are real. Should they have some doubts, one must forgive them, for past Syrian Governments have more that once promised that their country had, this time, "really" changed. Now, however, the efforts conducted in the last years by Abdallah Dardari, Mohammad Hussein and the likes appear to be serious and long-lasting.

One must not be too naïve. Politics will continue to be a key aspect of the links between the two countries. Still, Lebanese businesses must not be over-cautious. The Syrian market remains, in many ways, a virgin one and they must take benefit from their closeness and know-how, before it’s too late.

Beyond business deals, however, the development of greater economic integration between Lebanon and Syria is an opportunity to make sure that common interests, and no other factors, define their relationship.

Jihad Yazigi is the editor-in-chief of The Syria Report

To write to the author of this article: editor@syria-report.com

Note: Opinion and Analysis pieces for publication in The Syria Report are welcome. Write to the editor.

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